Exercise 3 solution (model answer; yours will use a different story)

Story: a headline says "Ocean currents could collapse within years".

1. Observation, projection or guess? The story is about a model projection, with a few observed trends mentioned.
2. What was measured? The headline relies on a statistical analysis of a proxy for the Atlantic overturning, not a direct measurement; direct arrays like RAPID only go back to 2004.
3. Rate, total or share? A change in the strength of the circulation, over a century-scale future, not a date for a sudden event.
4. Does the headline match the source? The paper gives a wide range of dates and calls the result uncertain, whereas the headline picks the earliest.
5. Local or global? The Atlantic circulation, not "all ocean currents".
6. One ocean? The Pacific and Southern Ocean circulation are not covered.

Chapter 7 (deep circulation) and Chapter 8 (climate) help me judge it: the overturning is slow and driven by density, and assessments describe weakening as likely but abrupt collapse as unlikely, with low confidence. My judgement: the story overstates the certainty and the speed.