prize5-7, Exercise 2: Testing "the festivals cause overtourism"

Model answer (one possible plan; check the sources):

1. Define the claim: overtourism by what measure, in which areas and in which weeks?
2. Gather the figures: visitor numbers and nights by month, accommodation occupancy and prices, public transport use, street cleaning and noise complaints, and police and health service demand.
3. Compare: August against other months, and against years without festivals (2020 and 2021 are unusual comparisons, Chapter 9), and Edinburgh against other tourist cities.
4. Separate the causes: how much crowding comes from festival-goers, how much from general tourism, cruise visitors and day trippers.
5. Add the residents' view: surveys, community council records and complaints, taking note of who commissioned them.
6. Weigh the benefits too: spending, jobs and the cultural gain, and whether they reach the same people who bear the costs.

Likely result: strong evidence of seasonal pressure, but "overtourism" remains a judgement, and the festival is one of several causes.